Market Commentary

Updated on April 22, 2024 10:05:59 AM EDT

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today. This morning’s negative open in bonds may be attributed to weekend news of the foreign aid package passing the House of Representatives, which means more government debt will likely need to be sold to pay for it. It is expected to pass the Senate this week and President Biden has already said he would sign it. More debt adds to supply in the market, making current securities less appealing.

The rest of the week has five monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled for release. Two of those reports are considered to be highly important, both coming late in the week. In addition to the data, there are two potentially relevant Treasury auctions to deal with midweek. Also worth mentioning is the fact that earnings season is picking up steam, where publicly traded companies announce their quarterly and annual earnings. Earnings generally affect stocks much more than bonds, but what is bad news for stocks is usually considered to be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tomorrow has one minor piece of data scheduled. Marchs New Home Sales data will be posted at 10:00 AM ET. It tells us the number of purchases of newly constructed homes, but only covers the small portion of all home sales in the U.S. that last weeks Existing Home Sales did not. This means it will take a wide variance from expectations for it to draw much attention. Analysts are predicting a slight increase in sales.

Overall, the most active day for rates is likely going to be either Thursday or Friday due to the importance of the economic releases those days (Gross Domestic Product and PCE inflation index). Corporate earnings announcements can also heavily influence stock trading and trickle down to bonds any day. It would be prudent to keep a close eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future as we may see multiple days of sizable changes in rates.